Did The System Collapse?

Did The System Collapse?

Updated 1/19/21 @ 7:15 PM EST

LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 1/19/21 @ 7:15 PM EST.

Spot Price (Goldprice.org): $1,842.17

Physical Price (Ebay Lowest Buy Now Price From Dealer Selling Multiple Coins in quantities of more than 10) – Liberty Coin: $2,017.41.

Dollar Premium: $175.24

Premium Percentage (Physical/Spot): 9.51% (red line shows long-term percentage premium trend).

Second lowest price dealer selling in quantity is Pinehurst Coin: $2,020.33/9.67% Premium (see bottom of page for a chart tracing the percentage differential between the 1st and 2nd lowest cost dealer prices from Ebay).


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET

  • UPDATE 1/18/21 @ 10:30 AM EST: Physical gold premium moved back above 10% in the morning and then by the afternoon it was back in the mid 9% range.
  • UPDATE 1/13/21 @ 12:00 NOON EST: Physical gold premium moved below 10%.
  • Something may be up. The physical gold premium spiked above 9% on the morning of 1/12/21 and then by evening it had broken through 10%.
  • Since 8/20 the physical gold premium has remained in the 7-8% range. Clearly, physical premiums have remained subdued since the Corona virus scare.
  • The premium first went below 7% on 6/24/20 and remained there until it went below 6% on 7/1/20. It remained in the low 6% area until gold and silver started rising toward the end of July. The premium is now above 8%.
  • The premium went below 8% for the first time on 6/8/20. It danced above and below 8% for the next week or so until on 6/17/20 it settled firmly below the 8% threshold.
  • The premium went back above 9% on 5/31/20 but didn’t stay there long as the very next day it dipped below.
  • On the afternoon of 5/26/20 Pinehurst Coin offered a “daily deal” which brought the premium back under 10%. The “deal” continued into 5/27 when Liberty Coin undercut Pinehurst bringing the premium even lower It has now dipped below 9%.
  • On the morning of 5/25/20 the premium went back above 10%.
  • On 5/10/20 the premium percentage went below 10% and, despite a brief move back above (on the mornings of 5/12/20 & 5/13/20), it is now back below 10%.
  • Since 5/6/20 the premium percentage has been below 11%.
  • On 4/29/20 the premium percentage fell below 12%.
  • On 4/29/20 the premium price fell below $200.00 per ounce and has remained there since.
  • The physical premium hit a high on 4/21/20 – $232.27/13.77%
  • Notice in early April that there were several large dips in premium. These were daily dealer specials which have not appeared since.

Ebay Coin Dealer Comparison

The chart which appears below shows how the Ebay (physical) price of gold differs between the lowest vs. the second-lowest cost dealer. The trend line (in red) shows that this differential has been declining over time – but I noticed that there are certain times when this differential spikes up. I don’t know if this is an important number but I decided to include it so that visitors to this site can keep track of it. 1/12/21 is a good example. The percentage differential spiked up early and then the physical premium went above 10% by evening. Interesting …

Updated 1/19/21 @ 7:15 PM EST

As of 1/19/21 @ 7:15 PM EST the percentage differential is: 0.16%.

Published by: Gregory Monte

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