Physical Gold Premium Spikes Above 12%

Updated 2/8/21 @ 7:10 PM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website:

UPDATE 2/8/21 @ 7:10 PM EST: There is still an apparent shortage in the physical gold market. Not only is there still only one dealer selling Gold Eagles in quantities over 10 coins (APMEX), but the premium has spiked above 12% after hovering in the high 11% range since late 2/4/21.

What does all of this mean?

Well, as I indicated last week:

As of 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST there is only one dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins: APMEX. This is the first time that I have seen this situation since I started keeping track last April. It appears that physical gold is starting to get in short supply just like its sister metal, silver (although as of 2/3/21 @ 8:20 PM EST silver coins are now available in quantity again).

Or, maybe, it is as innocuous as dealers just no longer relying on Ebay to sell their coins after the silver squeeze from earlier in the week.

Time will tell …

It appears that, perhaps, time seems to be telling a tale.

The fact that this elevated physical premium situation still persists indicates that inventories continue to remain tighter than usual.

Does this mean that the gold price will rise?

This I do not know, but I get the feeling that something is definitely going on in the gold market. Remember that I indicated on 1/12/21 that the premium started to move higher for no specific reason:

Something may be up. The physical gold premium spiked above 9% on the morning of 1/12/21 and then by evening it had broken through 10%

I thought that this was important because the premium had remained range-bound in the 7-8% area for many, many months before this:

Since 8/20 the physical gold premium has remained in the 7-8% range. Clearly, physical premiums have remained subdued since the Corona virus scare.

The only thing I can do at this point is to continue to monitor the situation and keep you all updated.

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