Physical Silver May Be Getting Scarce Again

Updated 2/25/21 @ 3:30 PM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


UPDATE 2/25/21 @ 3:30 PM EST: An interesting situation has just developed in the physical silver market. The lowest cost dealer offering 20 coin Silver Eagles tubes in quantity is Liberty Coin @ $729.28. But the next lowest cost dealer (MCM) is offering at a price way above – $826.40. After that you will find APMEX with a price of $847.42. Is something up, yet again, in the physical silver market?

UPDATE 2/25/21 @ 7:00 PM EST: Here are the Ebay dealers offering 20 coin Silver Eagle tubes in quantities of more than 10:

DBS Coin: $727.97 – $36.40/coin

Liberty Coin: $730.48 – $36.52/coin

MCM: $827.20 – $41.36/coin

APMEX: $848.45 – $42.42/coin


The above chart shows the physical silver premium over spot based on the prices from GoldPrice.Org and the Ebay Dealer Price for a roll of 20 Silver Eagles (selling in quantities of more than 10).

LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/25/21 @ 3:30 PM EST.

Spot Silver Price (ounce) – $27.46

Physical Silver Eagle Price (based on a 20-coin tube on Ebay): $36.46 NOTE: Pre-sales for future delivery are not counted.

Current Premium: $9.00/32.79%

Liberty Coin is the lowest price dealer selling in quantities of over 10, 20-coin lots.

Physical Gold Premium Has Remained Above $200 Since 2/3/21

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org

As I indicated in my last post, from 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST to 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST there was only one Ebay dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins.

Other dealers came in on 2/10/21 to provide coins in quantity but the dollar premium has stubbornly refused to come down very much. The dollar premium remains above $200.00 and the percentage premium has hovered in the high 11% to low 12% every since.

Unfortunately, the spot price continues to fall. Back on 2/3/21 it was around $1,835.00 and has since declined to about $1,775.00 as of 2/18/21 NOON EST.

Physical Gold Shortage Lets Up

Updated 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


From 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST to 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST there was only one Ebay dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins: APMEX.

Now Liberty Coin is offering Gold Eagles in quantity.

It appears as if the shortage may be letting up a bit.

Stay tuned …

LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST.

Spot Price (Goldprice.org): $1,843.36

Physical Price (Ebay Lowest Buy Now Price From Dealer Selling Multiple Coins in quantities of more than 10) – Liberty Coin: $2,054.35. NOTE: Pre-sales for future delivery are not counted.

Dollar Premium: $210.99

Premium Percentage (Physical/Spot): 11.45% – Red line shows 90-period moving average for the percentage premium.

Second lowest price dealer selling in quantity: APMEX: $226.91/12.31%.


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET

  • Update 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST: From 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST to 2/10/21 @ 2:00 PM EST there was only one dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins: APMEX. Now Liberty Coin is offering Gold Eagles in quantity. It appears as if the shortage may be letting up a bit.

Physical Gold Premium Spikes Above 12%

Updated 2/8/21 @ 7:10 PM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


UPDATE 2/8/21 @ 7:10 PM EST: There is still an apparent shortage in the physical gold market. Not only is there still only one dealer selling Gold Eagles in quantities over 10 coins (APMEX), but the premium has spiked above 12% after hovering in the high 11% range since late 2/4/21.

What does all of this mean?

Well, as I indicated last week:

As of 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST there is only one dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins: APMEX. This is the first time that I have seen this situation since I started keeping track last April. It appears that physical gold is starting to get in short supply just like its sister metal, silver (although as of 2/3/21 @ 8:20 PM EST silver coins are now available in quantity again).

Or, maybe, it is as innocuous as dealers just no longer relying on Ebay to sell their coins after the silver squeeze from earlier in the week.

Time will tell …

It appears that, perhaps, time seems to be telling a tale.

The fact that this elevated physical premium situation still persists indicates that inventories continue to remain tighter than usual.

Does this mean that the gold price will rise?

This I do not know, but I get the feeling that something is definitely going on in the gold market. Remember that I indicated on 1/12/21 that the premium started to move higher for no specific reason:

Something may be up. The physical gold premium spiked above 9% on the morning of 1/12/21 and then by evening it had broken through 10%

I thought that this was important because the premium had remained range-bound in the 7-8% area for many, many months before this:

Since 8/20 the physical gold premium has remained in the 7-8% range. Clearly, physical premiums have remained subdued since the Corona virus scare.

The only thing I can do at this point is to continue to monitor the situation and keep you all updated.

Physical Gold in Short Supply While Premium Remains Elevated.

As I started noticing on Wednesday 2/3/21, physical gold was getting scarce. Here is what I indicated two days ago:

As of 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST there is only one dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins: APMEX. This is the first time that I have seen this situation since I started keeping track last April. It appears that physical gold is starting to get in short supply just like its sister metal, silver (although as of 2/3/21 @ 8:20 PM EST silver coins are now available in quantity again).

Or, maybe it is as innocuous as dealers just no longer relying on Ebay to sell their coins after the silver squeeze from earlier in the week.

Time will tell …

Because my daily updates are only based on Ebay prices, I decided to look a bit further afield just to make sure that that I had confirmation of my own observations.

Well, I found a website which offers a comparison of gold coin offer prices from many firms: CompareGoldPrices.com.

When you first get on the site you see an nice selection of Gold Eagles for sale at a wide range of prices.

But then at the top in bold red is a very important notification:

Note: almost all dealers are out of inventory at this time due to extreme shortages. Pricing is provided for convenience, if available.

I clicked each link just to make sure and it turns out that there is very limited availability for immediate delivery. Here are the details:

  • Silver.com: Available but 10+ shipping day delay ($1,965.14 check/wire price)
  • BGASC: Available Immediately ($1,956.13 check/wire price)
  • SD Bullion: Available but 10+ shipping day delay ($2,048.97 check/wire price)
  • KITCO: Out of stock
  • Provident Metals: Out of stock
  • JM Bullion: Out of stock
  • APMEX: The only dealer selling in quantity on Ebay
  • GoldSilver: 1-2 month delay

This might account for the substantial increase in physical gold premiums that started on 1/12/21. The chart at the top of this post shows this very clearly. Essentially, premiums went from 8% on that day all the way up to approximately 12% today. That is a 50% increase in a short amount of time.

Physical Silver Premium Starts To Settle Down …

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


From 11:50 AM EST on 2/1/21 until 2/3/21 @ 8:20 PM EST there were no dealers on Ebay selling 20-coin tubes in quantities over 10 (essentially a “no offer” market). This situation changed when Liberty Coin began offering coins in quantities greater than 10. In addition, DBS Coins has started offering silver coins in quantity.

As before, there are still many individuals selling 20-coin tubes.

The above chart shows the physical silver premium over spot based on the prices from GoldPrice.Org and the Ebay Dealer Price for a roll of 20 Silver Eagles (selling in quantities of more than 10). The first data point is my last purchase of a 20 roll of Silver Eagles back in August of 2019 when the premium was only 13.47%. The red line shows the 90-period moving average of the percentage premium.



LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/3/21 @ 8:20 PM EST.

Spot Silver Price (ounce) – $26.80

Physical Silver Eagle Price (based on a 20-coin tube on Ebay): $38.26. NOTE: Pre-sales for future delivery are not counted.

Current Premium: $11.46/42.76%

Liberty Coin is the lowest price dealer selling in quantities over 10, 20-coin lots.




Is Physical Gold About To Go “No Offer” Like Silver?

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


NOTE: There is only one dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 gold coins (APMEX). This is the first time that I have seen this situation since I started keeping track last April. It appears that physical gold is starting to get in short supply just like its sister metal, silver.

Or, maybe it is as innocuous as dealers just no longer relying on Ebay to sell their coins after the silver squeeze from earlier in the week.

Time will tell.


LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/3/21 @ 12:10 PM EST.

Spot Price (Goldprice.org): $1,835.41

Physical Price (Ebay Lowest Buy Now Price From Dealer Selling Multiple Coins in quantities of more than 10) – APMEX: $2,044.69. NOTE: Pre-sales for future delivery are not counted.

Dollar Premium: $209.28

Premium Percentage (Physical/Spot): 11.40% – Red line shows 90-period moving average for the percentage premium.

Second lowest price dealer selling in quantity: There is no other dealer selling in quantities of more than 10 coins – first time since I have been keeping records.


I will keep track of this situation to see if it gets better … or worse.

Stay tuned.

Why Did The Physical Gold Premium Start Moving Higher on 1/12/21?

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


Before you get too far into this post, let me just say outright that I don’t know the answer to this question. I merely raise it because I noted the breakout when it began in one of my daily updates.

Here is what I wrote on 1/12/21:

Something may be up. The physical gold premium spiked above 9% on the morning of 1/12/21 and then by evening it had broken through 10%.

This spike was all the more noteworthy because the physical gold premium had been mired in the 7-8% range since 8/20/20.

Did it have something to do with the recognition that Biden would actually be the new president? It is possible, but there might be something else going on under the surface. Time will tell, but we are far away from the premiums seen at the start of the Coronavirus scare. Back then the premium hit 14%.

The premium now stands at 10.69%.

Also, notice that the Shanghai premium to Spot first went positive on 1/11/21 – right about the same time that the physical premium jumped:

The 30-day moving average (red) shows that the Shanghai discount to Spot has been getting smaller since I started keeping records. The discount hit a low on 8/11/20 of -6.62%. However, since 1/11/21 the Shanghai price has been at almost a continuous premium to Spot.

Physical Silver Premium Update 2/1/21 @ 6:30 PM EST

Updated 2/1/21 @ 6:30 PM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


This chart shows the physical silver premium over spot based on the prices from GoldPrice.Org and the Ebay Dealer Price for a roll of 20 Silver Eagles (selling in quantities of more than 10). The first data point is my last purchase of a 20 roll of Silver Eagles back in August of 2019 when the premium was only 13.47%. The red line shows the 90-period moving average of the percentage premium.

NOTE: As of 11:50 AM EST on 2/1/21 there are no dealers on Ebay selling 20-coin tubes in quantities over 10. It appears, once again, that physical silver has gone “no offer.”

As was the case yesterday, there are many individuals selling 20-coin tubes, but dealer offers in any kind of quantity have all but vanished. I was using the APMEX physical price this morning (even though it had limited quantities) but now DBS has some 20-coin tubes.


LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/1/21 @ 6:30 PM EST.

Spot Silver Price (ounce) – $28.75

Physical Silver Eagle Price (based on a 20-coin tube on Ebay): $44.25. NOTE: Pre-sales for future delivery are not counted.

Current Premium: $15.50/53.91%

DBS Coins is the lowest price dealer selling – 3 available.


Physical Silver Availability on Ebay – 6:30 PM EST


Physical Silver Goes “No Offer” Yet Again …

Updated 2/1/21 @ 11:50 AM EST

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org


NOTE: As of 11:50 AM EST on 2/1/21 there are no dealers on Ebay selling 20-coin tubes in quantities over 10. It appears, once again, that physical silver has gone “no offer.”

As was the case yesterday, there are many individuals selling 20-coin tubes, but dealer offers in any kind of quantity have all but vanished. I am still using the APMEX physical price to calculate percentage premium even though the company indicates limited supply.


LAST GRAPH UPDATE: 2/1/21 @ 11:50 AM EST.

Spot Silver Price (ounce) – $28.98

Physical Silver Eagle Price (based on a 20-coin tube on Ebay): $45.99.

Current Premium: $17.01/58.69%

APMEX is the lowest price dealer selling in limited quantities only.


Recent Updates

UPDATE 2/1/21 @ 8:55 AM EST: APMEX is still offering 20-coin silver eagle tubes in quantity. Percentage premium is 58.90%.

UPDATE 1/31/21 @ 7:00 PM EST: Now that the Spot marked is open things have calmed down a bit. Currently AMPEX has come in as the lowest cost dealer and the percentage premium has declined to 36.65%. But by 9:40 PM EST the premium had jumped back above 60%.

UPDATE 1/31/21 @ 5:00 PM EST: There are no dealers selling in quantity on Ebay – the physical silver market has gone, essentially, “no offer.” I picked an individual selling 10, 20-coin lots in order to get my updated percentage premium of 66.48%.

UPDATE 1/31/21 @ 2:00 PM EST: Aydin Coin is sold out. The next best deal is a 40-coin lot from Bullion Exchanges. I am using this price rather than a 20-coin price because there are, literally, no dealers selling 20-coin lots in quantities of more than 10. This is why the premium on physical silver declined from its 66.22% high earlier in the day.

UPDATE 1/31/21 @ 12:00 NOON EST: Aydin Coin is still lowest cost but now it indicates a delay in shipping. Current percentage premium is 44.63%. By 1:30 the premium had moved over 60%.