Did The System Collapse?

Possible Physical Gold Premium Signal?

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

The chart which appears above shows how the Ebay (physical) price of gold differs between the lowest vs. the second-lowest cost dealer. The 90 Period Moving Average (in red) is hard to interpret but I noticed that there are certain times when this differential spikes up. I don’t know if this is an important number but I decided to include it so that visitors to this site can keep track of it.

1/12/21 is a good example. The percentage differential spiked up above 1.8% early in the day and this was followed by the physical gold premium moving above 10% by evening. Interesting …

Why This May Be Important

I decided to post tonight because the premium difference between the 1st and 2nd lowest cost physical dealers on Ebay has jumped dramatically this evening. As the graph shows, usually the spread is very low – in the range of less than 0.50 %. However, for some reason (which may be only temporary), this difference has increased to almost 3.00%.

UPDATE 3/25/21 @ 7:00 PM EST: The second lowest cost dealer selling in quantity is no longer Liberty Coin. Now APMEX has attained this slot which has increased the premium immensely. The premium for APMEX is : $245.21/14.1.9%.

Perhaps by the morning things will have settled down. I will continue to monitor this situation.

UPDATE 3/26/21 @ 7:45 AM EST: Well, things have definitely not settled down this morning. The differential between the 1st and 2nd lowest cost physical dealers on Ebay has actually increased to 3.13%. The premium for second lowest price dealer selling in quantity now appears as follows – APMEX: $244.73/14.19% (Liberty Coin only has 5 coins available).

Physical Silver: After Short Dip to a 35% Premium, It’s Back Over 40% Now.

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

CURRENT UPDATE: 3/22/21 @ 2:20 PM EST.

Spot Silver Price (ounce) – $25.75

Physical Silver Eagle Price (based on a 20-coin tube on Ebay): $36.82

Current Premium: $11.07/42.99%

MCM is the lowest price dealer selling in quantities of over 10, 20-coin lots.

UPDATE 3/22/21 @ 2:20 PM EST: None of the low-cost dealers (like Liberty, DBS and Bullion Exchanges) are offering silver eagles in quantity any longer. The best price is MCM: $736.40 – $36.82/coin (105 available).

Here are the Ebay dealers offering 20 coin Silver Eagle tubes in quantities of more than 10:

– Bullion Exchanges: $694.95 – $34.74/coin (Limited).

– DBS Coin: $697.10 – $34.85/coin (3 available).

– Liberty Coin: $698.22 – $34.91/coin (3 available)

– MCM: $736.40 – $36.82/coin (105 available).

– APMEX: $749.48 – $37.47/coin.

– APMEX: $873.20 – $43.66/coin.

Physical Silver Premium Jumps to 45%

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

When I updated my website this evening at 7:20 PM EST, I noticed that the standard lowest cost dealer, DBS Coin, was no longer offering American Silver Eagles in large quantities any longer.

UPDATE 3/18/21 @ 7:20 PM EST: DBS Coin is no longer selling in quantities of more than 10 – 20 tube lots. The next dealer selling in quantity is APMEX at a way higher price – APMEX: $754.64 – $37.73/coin. This represents a $11.75/45.12% premium. Usually DBS Coin comes in with a lower price (in quantity) in the morning, so I will be watching to see if this is the case tomorrow. Stay tuned.

This may just be an anomaly because, as I indicate in my update, DBS Coin regularly undercuts the market on Ebay. So, I would not read too much into this – unless by tomorrow morning DBS fails to offer Silver Eagles in quantity. If this happens, then I will start to believe that we are looking at another major physical silver shortage.

Check back in the morning for another update.

UPDATE 3/19/21 @ 7:45 AM EST: DBS Coin did not come in this morning with any offers (they have no coins available) so the physical silver premium remains elevated.

UPDATE 3/20/21 @ 1:45 PM EST: Sometime over the past 24 hours, DBS Coin finally came in with a low offer for Silver Eagles which has brought the premium all of the way back down to the mid 30% range.

Trend Divergence in Shanghai Gold Fix Discount to Physical Metal

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

If you look at the chart pictured above you should notice that, up until about 2/1/21, the 30-period trend lines for both the Shanghai Premium to Spot and Discount to Physical were, more or less, identical.

But at the beginning of February, you can clearly see that the yellow trend line which follows the Shanghai discount to physical gold started moving downward while the red trend line which follows the Shanghai premium to spot gold started moving in the opposite direction.

What accounts for this divergence?

Unfortunately, I can’t answer that question, but I am keeping an eye on it so that I can look back in a couple of weeks or so to possibly understand what it means.

Maybe it has no relevance at all but, in any case, I wanted my readers who didn’t notice this to be aware.

Physical Silver Scarcity/Premium Update

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

Scarcity & Dollar Cost Update

The physical Silver Eagle scarcity which began on 2/25/21 continues – as do the elevated premiums. As I noted back in February (UPDATE 2/25/21 @ 3:30 PM EST):

An interesting situation has just developed in the physical silver market. The lowest cost dealer offering 20 coin Silver Eagles tubes in quantity is Liberty Coin @ $729.28. But the next lowest cost dealer (MCM) is offering at a price way above – $826.40. After that you will find APMEX with a price of $847.42. Is something up, yet again, in the physical silver market?

Well this situation has not really improved all that much some 3 weeks later. Here is the current availability on Ebay:

UPDATE 3/15/21 @ 11:00 AM EST: Here are the Ebay dealers offering 20 coin Silver Eagle tubes in quantities of more than 10: Liberty Coin: None Available, DBS Coin: $701.55 – $35.08/coin, APMEX: $754.64 – $37.73/coin, MCM: $795.40 – $39.77/coin (129 available) & APMEX: $878.35 – $43.91/coin.

As I pointed out in previous posts, notice the large spread between the low-cost DBS Coin (2021 date tube) and the next offering by APMEX. You have to pay more than $2.50 more per coin (random year).

But it only gets worse from there. MCM appears to have a nice supply of tubes (129 available) but you are paying close to $40.00/coin in that case (for 2021 date tube). And if you want a 2020 dated tube, APMEX is charging $43.91/coin.

Premium Update

As for premiums, there has been a marked increase since just yesterday – from approximately 32% to 35%. This is due to the fact that Liberty Coin is no longer offering Silver Eagles in quantity, leaving DBS Coin dominating the low of the market. Since I started this website, DBS Coin has consistently been the lowest cost dealer.

Physical Silver Eagle Supply Loosens Up

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

While the supply of physical Silver Eagle coins is by no means plentiful (as I have indicated in several recent blog posts here, here, here and here), I did notice this morning that there are more offers of 20-coin tubes than has been the case over the past several weeks.

UPDATE 3/9/21 @ 10:10 AM EST

Silver Eagles are getting more plentiful again. On 3/5/21 there were only two dealers offering in quantity but now there are three (and some have multiple offers). However, I still find it interesting how there is a large jump in cost from the two low-cost dealers (DBS & Liberty Coin) and the others (MCM & APMEX).

Here is the availability on Ebay: DBS Coin: $689.36 – $34.47/coin, Liberty Coin: $696.98 – $34.84/coin, MCM: $745.80 – $37.29/coin (26 available), MCM: $794.60 – $39.73/coin (145 available), APMEX: $796.49 – $39.82/coin, APMEX: $878.97 – $43.94/coin

Physical Silver Scarcity Update

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

UPDATE 3/5/21 @ 7:40 AM EST: The scarcity in the physical silver market is back. Currently there are only two dealers offering Physical Eagles in 20-tube quantities of more than 10 offers. This would be Liberty Coin – $685.38 – $34.27/coin & APMEX: $804.74 – $40.23/coin. Notice the very large difference in offer prices – almost a $120.00 difference. Not sure if this will last throughout the day because, quite often, DBS Coin comes in with very low prices (at least this has been the case since I started to closely follow the Ebay market since last Spring).

UPDATE @ 9:10 AM EST: Sure enough, DBS Coin came in as the lowest cost dealer – $673.38/$33.67 per coin.

UPDATE 3/5/21 @ 2:00 PM EST: DBS Coin is no longer selling in quanitity. Here are the Ebay dealers offering 20 coin Silver Eagle tubes in quantities of more than 10:

– Liberty Coin: $682.69 – $34.13/coin

– APMEX: $781.44 – $39.07/coin

New Physical Gold and Silver Charts Available

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

I have added a couple of new charts to my website that may be of interest to readers. First of all there is the standard Daily Gold Premium Chart:

But now I also include an intra-day Gold Premium Chart so you can see the changes throughout the day. This chart also includes includes a first data point of 12/8/19 when I purchased an American Gold Eagle at a premium of $81.87/5.06%.

Because this chart has many more data points, I increased the moving average to 90 periods so you can see a different perspective:

Then, of course, there is the standard Daily Physical Silver Premium Chart:

But now I also include an intra-day Physical Silver Premium Chart for anyone who wants to see what is going on throughout the day. This chart also includes an early data point (8/26/19) when I purchased an American Silver Eagle at a premium of $2.38/13.47%.

Again, I increased the moving average to 90 periods because it was more appropriate for a chart with more data points.

Finally, I updated the Shanghai Gold page of my website to include two other charts as shown below:

Physical Silver Running Low Yet Again

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org.

As of my latest Ebay check, physical silver availability is getting more strained.

Here are the latest totals of availability:

UPDATE 3/3/21 @ 7:00 PM EST: Here are the Ebay dealers offering 20 coin Silver Eagle tubes in quantities of more than 10:

– DBS Coin: $689.99 – $34.50/coin

– Liberty Coin: $699.70 – $34.98/coin

– APMEX: $818.35 – $40.91/coin

What is notable is that MCM is no longer offering coins in quantities of more than 10 tubes of 20 silver eagles (it only has 9 available). This means that the spread betwen the two low cost “discount” dealers (DBS & Liberty) and the next major dealer (APMEX) is almost $6.00 per coin.

I don’t know what this means for the day-to-day artificial spot price going forward, but I am keeping an eye on how this will eventually play out for the real physical market.

As the expression goes, stay tuned …

I want to thank Jason from Wall Street for Main Street for mentioning my blog on his latest YouTube Episode. Thanks Jason!

You can hear him talk about my blog at about the 1:50 minute mark.

Physical Silver Availability – An Update

Posted by Gregory Monte.

For graphs showing the physical gold & silver premiums as well as the current physical gold/silver ratios compared to spot, please go to my website: http://www.didthesystemcollapse.org

As I indicated in my most recent updates on the physical silver market, there seemed to be a lack of availability from Ebay dealers selling Silver Eagles. I started noticing this on 2/25:

UPDATE 2/25/21 @ 3:30 PM EST: An interesting situation has developed in the physical silver market. The lowest cost dealer offering 20 coin Silver Eagles in quantity is Liberty Coin @ $729.28. But the next lowest cost dealer (MCM) is offering at a price way above – $826.40. After that you will find APMEX with a price of $847.42. Is something up, yet again, in the physical silver market?

I then noted that the scarcity continued into 2/26:

UPDATE 2/26/21 @ 8:45 AM EST: The scarcity in the silver market continues this morning. Liberty Coin is still the lowest cost dealer offering 20 coin Silver Eagles in quantity – $714.84. Next is MCM – $814.60 followed by APMEX at $835.26.

But today the scarcity has abated somewhat:

UPDATE 3/1/21 @ 12:50 PM EST: The scarcity has let up a bit as now there are three dealers offering Silver Eagles in quantity in the low $700 range for a 20 coin lot. DBS Coin: $710.86 – $35.54/coin, Liberty Coin: $712.97 – $35.64/coin and Bullion Exchanges: $714.52 – $35.72/coin.

In any case, I still find interesting that there is a large jump in prices from the above three “discount” dealers to the next set of dealers who are offering prices in the low $800 dollar range.

MCM: $811.40 – $40.57/coin (only 16 available)

APMEX: $832.99 – $41.64 coin

When you consider that MCM only has 16 available lots and the APMEX price is more than $100/lot more than the “discount” dealers, it kind of makes you wonder what exactly is going on.

I will keep you posted on developments as I notice them.